PE fundamentals continue to be weak, and cost support is also weak. Supply-side disturbance factors exist for a long time, while macro pressure remains unabated. The risk of economic recession caused by US debt continues to suppress PE. Short-term PE may be weak and volatile Mainly.
OPEC stated that it has no intention to further cut production. As the recession sentiment rises, oil prices may continue to be under pressure, and the support for PP will be further weakened. Moreover, PP is basically not enough to support its price, and PP is weak and hard to change.
breaking news
1. China's exports of plastic products in April increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the decline in imports expanded again
In April, China's exports of plastic products (in US dollars) increased by 8.5% year-on-year, and the previous value increased by 14.8%. Exports were basically in line with market expectations, while imports were lower than market expectations.
In April 2023, the volume of imported primary plastic raw materials was 2.147 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 110.7%; the import value was 23.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%. From January to April, the amount of imported primary plastic raw materials was 9.511 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%; the import value was 103.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.6%. The low volatility of international crude oil prices has led to a decline in foreign polyolefin prices, which has intensified the negative impact on the domestic polyolefin market in the country, and the polyolefin import arbitrage window occasionally opens.
From the perspective of the average value of imported primary plastic raw materials, the price initially fluctuated and rose after bottoming out in June 2020, and then began to fall after the monthly average price reached a new high in June 2022, and then fell for five consecutive months. As shown in the figure, the average price has increased in April, and the cumulative average price from January to April has also increased.
2, April PE domestic production decline may further decline in May
In April 2023, the domestic PE output was 2.2309 million tons, a decrease of 66,700 tons or 2.90% compared with March, and an increase of 408,400 tons or 22.41% compared with the same period last year. The main reasons are as follows: firstly, due to sluggish domestic demand, lower market prices, and more maintenance of domestic petrochemical equipment; secondly, the operating cycle of domestic petrochemical equipment has been reduced by one day compared with March.
