Many companies attribute the decline in performance to a decrease in sales prices. Since this year, domestic papermaking companies have issued multiple price increase letters, but the effects have not been reflected in performance. On October 29, a staff member of Sun Paper Industry told the reporter of the "Huaxia Times" that the main reason is the lack of demand. Many times, product price increases cannot be implemented. "For example, the price of double-coated paper has been declining in the first three quarters, and the current price is also relatively low."
For the subsequent trend of paper prices, Zhuoc创 Information分析师 told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" on October 28 that as the industry enters the traditional peak season, the prices of whiteboard paper and corrugated paper are expected to recover in the fourth quarter, the average price of double-coated paper is expected to fall ring by ring, and coated paper may fall first and then recover.
Paper prices decline
The paper industry is a basic raw material industry in China, closely related to the national economy and social development. Generally speaking, the paper industry can be divided into four major categories according to the purpose: cultural paper (double-gloss paper, coated paper), packaging paper (white cardboard, corrugated paper, container board), special paper (tobacco paper, etc.), and sanitary paper.
In the first three quarters of this year, affected by factors such as supply and demand imbalance and high costs, the prices of white cardboard, double-coated paper, coated paper, and corrugated paper continued to decline. Although paper mills have raised prices multiple times this year, the effect has been mixed.
The decline in paper prices has also eaten into the profits of listed companies. Data from Tonghuashun shows that the net profits of paper-making companies that have released their third-quarter reports have generally shown a downward trend.
In the first three quarters, Yueyang Forest Paper achieved operating income of 6.568 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07%; net profit was 162 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.49%. In the third quarter, the company's net profit dropped significantly, year-on-year decrease of 78.48%, to 1.777 billion yuan.
As the industry leader, during the reporting period, Sun Paper Industry achieved operating income of 28.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%; net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.66%; adjusted net profit of 2.471 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.64%.
The main reason for the decline in revenue is still the lack of demand, according to the staff of the company. Public information shows that the company is mainly engaged in the production and sales of mechanical paper, paper products, wood pulp and cardboard.
Specialty paper, as a high-tech product in the paper industry, has also seen a decline in the performance of related listed companies. In the first three quarters, Wuzhou Special Paper achieved operating income of 6.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.13%; net profit was 181 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 44.66%. Minfeng Special Paper's operating income in the first three quarters was 889 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.61%; net profit was 18.6411 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69.43%.
Wuzhou Special Paper said that the company's performance change is mainly due to the dense release of industry capacity and the slow growth of demand, leading to intensified competition in product prices, resulting in a decline in profits year-on-year.
Each with its challenges
apart from the decline in paper prices, the reasons for the performance decline of various companies are also different.
Yueyang Forest Paper said the main reasons for the decline in third-quarter performance are three. First, the paper product market competition is fierce, and the sales price has decreased compared to the same period last year. Second, the fixed assets of the technical transformation project were transferred in the same period last year, and the project loans did not meet the capitalization conditions, resulting in an increase in the company's interest expenses. Third, the subsidiary's garden business has been affected by the industry's decline, and both revenue and costs have decreased.
Mingfeng special paper's third-quarter performance decline is mainly due to production line adjustments.
The company pointed out in its financial report that its PM20 and PM22 paper machines stopped operation at the end of May and August 2024, respectively, and there was no production during the period from the beginning of the year to the end of the report period, resulting in a decrease in the company's overall production and sales volume compared to the same period last year, and leading to a decrease in operating income and operating profit.
In addition, similar to Yueyang Forest Paper, the interest on the project loans for the first and second phases of Minfeng Special Paper cannot be capitalized as well, but is expensed, resulting in increased financial expenses and operating costs, and a decrease in operating profit.
Sanyo Paper and Wuzhou Special Paper were affected by the financial pressure brought by the expansion.
In April this year, the industrial packaging paper production line of Wuzhou Special Paper Hubei base was fully put into operation, adding 550,000 tons/year of containerboard and corrugated paper production capacity. In September, two special paper production lines in Hubei base were also put into operation one after another, adding 300,000 tons of coated paper and 70,000 tons of decorative paper production capacity respectively. The continuous expansion of production capacity has brought about revenue growth, but it has also led to a year-on-year increase of 84.46% in the company's interest expenses to 152 million yuan.
The expansion of production by the Sun Paper Industry in逆周期 has led to a 30.13% reduction in the company's monetary funds on the books to 2.107 billion yuan, while the company's short-term loans on the books during the same period were 7.711 billion yuan, and the non-current liabilities due within one year were 2.504 billion yuan, indicating a potential debt pressure in the short term. In addition, the company also has 9.787 billion yuan of long-term liabilities. The high debt has also led to a high interest expense for the company, with the interest expense of Sun Paper Industry reaching 361 million yuan during the reporting period.
Hope for a warming up
Reporters noted that paper mills still have expansion capacity implemented in the fourth quarter.
Take the Sun Paper Industry as an example, the first phase of the Nanning Park of the company's Guangxi base, the high-grade packaging paper production line PM12 entered the commissioning stage in October 2025; in terms of sanitary paper, the Nanning Park started the construction of 4 production lines in early 2025, among which PM16 and PM17 entered the commissioning stage in October 2025, and PM18 and PM19 are expected to enter the commissioning stage in November 2025.
Is the continuous expansion of production in the industry likely to lead to a decline in prices? Staff from Sun Paper Industry told reporters that the key is to focus on their own work and ensure the profitability of the enterprise. In terms of the company itself, it mainly follows the route of differentiation, making some differentiated products according to customer needs, to ensure the core competitiveness.
It is worth noting that although the production capacity is still expanding, the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for the paper industry. In the short term, under the condition of demand growth, the performance of some paper grades is expected to recover.
Zhuoqin Information's senior analyst, Pan Jingwen, told reporters that the fourth quarter is in the traditional peak season for consumption, with e-commerce and New Year's and Spring Festival orders gradually being released, and downstream companies are replenishing their inventories one after another. Overall, the fourth quarter's paper mills are still promoting the rise in prices, and most paper mills have issued a price increase notice by the end of October. Zhuoqin Information predicts that the fourth quarter's whiteboard paper market trend may rise, but there may be a risk of a decline in December due to the weakening of costs.
The price of corrugated paper, which belongs to the same category as whiteboard paper, is also on the rise. Li Li, a senior analyst of corrugated and containerboard paper, told reporters that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the corrugated paper industry is in the traditional consumption peak season, with both supply and demand expected to increase. The cost support for paper prices is strong at first and then weak, and it is expected that the overall trend of the corrugated paper market will be strong, but there is a risk of decline in December driven by the cost trend.
In terms of cultural paper, for double-coated paper mainly used in teaching and auxiliary fields, Li Shuang, a double-coated paper analyst from Zhongqian Information, analyzed to the reporter that the current paper mills are facing significant profit pressure, or there may be a price increase operation, and the double-coated paper price is expected to have a slight recovery. Affected by the low base price, the expected average price in the fourth quarter is expected to decline month by month.
Sun Yue, a copperstone paper analyst at Zhongqin Information, said that the supply and demand of double-coated paper in the fourth quarter are expected to increase, and the demand recovery is expected to support the paper price to stop falling and recover. However, the loose supply and the expectation of falling costs limit the upward space of paper prices, and the market price of double-coated paper in the fourth quarter may fall first and then recover.
