Entering April, the wrapping paper market, which has continued to decline and has been silent for a long time, seems to be preparing for a counterattack.
The "Securities Daily" reporter learned that after several rounds of price reductions, many packaging paper production areas have recently begun to increase the purchase prices of waste paper such as corrugated paper and recycled paper. At the beginning of April, the prices of some paper grades were raised slightly.
"Affected by multiple factors, the price of packaging paper has continued to fall in the past month or so, and it has now entered a low level in recent years." The person in charge of a packaging paper company in Liaocheng, Shandong told the "Securities Daily" reporter. However, the recent acquisition of waste paper The slight increase in prices is superimposed on the signals released by leading paper companies, and the industry's confidence in price increases is expected to be boosted.
According to Xu Ling, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, the supply and demand of the corrugated and container board market in April may still be dominated by games. "Affected by the price increase in some bases of large-scale paper mills at the end of March, paper prices may increase in April, but the increase is not as high as the decline in March."
The price of packaging paper hit a new low in the past five years
Since the beginning of this year, the market price of corrugated and cardboard-based packaging paper has continued to decline. As of the end of March, its price hit a new low in the past five years. "This is mainly due to multiple factors such as increased imports, weak demand, and the combination of cost declines." Xu Ling said.
Xu Ling told reporters that from January 1 this year, China has adjusted the import and export tariffs of some commodities, among which the import tariffs on finished paper such as offset paper , coated paper , white cardboard , corrugated paper, and cardboard paper have been adjusted to zero tariffs ( previously 5% to 6%). The price advantage of imported paper is obvious after the tariff is cleared. It is expected that the quantity of imported paper will increase rapidly in the short term, which will have a certain impact on the domestic market.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the cumulative import volume of corrugated paper from January to February this year was 496,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.86%; the cumulative import volume of containerboard paper was about 624,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.04%. Xu Ling told reporters that although the import data for March has not yet been released, considering that most of the imported paper to Hong Kong is in February, there is still room for arbitrage between imported paper and domestic paper in February, and the enthusiasm for domestic imports is still high. The volume may continue to grow, the game between domestic base paper and imported paper will become stronger, and the price will decline weakly.
However, it is worth noting that from the end of March, East China and South China began to increase the purchase price of waste paper such as corrugated paper and recycled paper. For example, Shandong Zaozhuang Fengyuan Zhongke Paper has raised the price of waste paper by 30 yuan/ton since March 31; The price of boxboard paper in some texts rose by 50 yuan/ton. In addition, Nine Dragons Paper, a leading paper company for packaging paper, also reported price increases. Some paper types in its three major production bases in Dongguan, Quanzhou, and Tianjin will increase prices by 50 yuan/ton in early April. Some people in the industry said that this is the rise of Nine Dragons Paper after several recent price adjustments.
However, from the perspective of the demand side, Xu Ling believes that there are many people with a bearish attitude in the market, and the enthusiasm of downstream packaging factories to purchase raw paper is low, and they maintain rigid demand, and the shipments of paper factories are affected to a certain extent. However, from the cost point of view, since the price of waste paper, the main raw material, is expected to rebound within a narrow range, the cost side can provide some positive support, which is conducive to the operation of the corrugated and container board market.
The industry expects the performance of the second quarter to be repaired
Chenming Paper told the "Securities Daily" reporter that due to factors such as the sharp increase in upstream production costs and the sluggish downstream market demand last year, the overall profitability of the paper industry has declined, and the number of paper-making enterprises above designated size has increased in losses. However, repeated market tests have also accelerated the clearance of low-end companies.
Regarding the development situation since this year, Chenming Paper introduced: "In terms of the price of paper products, since this year, APP, Chenming Paper and other large paper companies have raised the prices of some types of products, and the price increase range is 100 yuan per ton. It ranges from 200 yuan per ton. At present, according to feedback from enterprises, the implementation of this round of price increases is relatively good. In terms of costs, the price of commercial pulp has fallen since the beginning of the year, and the cost pressure of paper-making enterprises has eased.”
A number of analysis institutions have also put forward their own predictions on the performance recovery of paper companies this year. Zhongtai Securities believes that the paper industry is transitioning from active destocking to passive destocking. According to historical experience, the first half of this year may usher in the bottom layout opportunity of passive destocking. The domestic pulp price has accelerated downward, and the profit recovery brought about by the cost decline is expected to be realized in the second quarter.
Southwest Securities said that under the expectation of consumption recovery, the terminal demand of the sector is expected to pick up, which will drive up the price of paper, while the downward expectation of pulp price will gradually increase, and the paper sector is expected to usher in a profit restoration as a whole.
