On November 27th, a staff member of the investor relations office of Sun Paper Industry told reporters that the main reasons for this round of price increases are, on the one hand, the dual festivals at the end of the year, which have a certain boost on prices, and on the other hand, the overall price of paper is at the bottom level, there is also a demand for price increases.
Data from Zhuochuang Information shows that the prices of corrugated paper and white cardboard have been rising for several consecutive months. On November 25, the reporter interviewed several paper analysts from Zhuochuang Information and learned that the current paper prices are showing differentiation. The price of double-coated paper is still in the bottom stage, while the prices of corrugated paper and white cardboard have bottomed out and rebounded. However, in the long term, the paper industry is still in a state of oversupply, and the price trend is not optimistic.
Price increase
On November 25th, Sun Paper issued a price increase notice, stating that due to recent changes in the market environment and the continuous rise in raw material prices, the company's production costs have significantly increased. In order to maintain the company's health and sustainable development, it is necessary to adjust the product prices. The company has decided to implement a price increase of 200 yuan/ton for all cultural paper products from December 1st, based on the current price.
As always, this price increase is not a solitary action by a single enterprise. From November 20th to November 27th, several paper-making companies issued price increase notifications, mainly involving two major categories: packaging paper and cultural paper. Among them, packaging paper mainly includes corrugated paper and white cardboard, while cultural paper mainly includes double-coated paper. In terms of the magnitude of the price increase, the price increase for corrugated paper is relatively small, with a general increase of 50 yuan/ton, while the price of white cardboard and double-coated paper increased by 200 yuan/ton.
Reporters learned that the raw material prices for corrugated paper, such as waste paper and white cardboard, and double-coated paper, such as pulp, have all increased, and the rising cost supports the price increase of related paper products. At the same time, the fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for the packaging paper industry. Downstream industries are preparing for the upcoming festivals, and double-coated paper, a cultural paper product, is also at the peak of the publishing and bidding period.
Due to different raw materials, the reasons for the price increase also vary. Niu Weina, a packaging paper analyst at Zhongqiong Information, told reporters that since July, the price of upstream raw material waste paper has been continuously rising, and when combined with the announcement issued by the General Administration of Customs on October 9 regarding the declaration of imported recycled paper pulp, it has further driven up the price of waste paper.
There are also industry insiders who have told reporters that due to a decrease in demand from the consumer terminal, the overall recycling of waste paper has relatively decreased, leading to a reduction in the supply of waste paper and thus a rise in prices. The increase in pulp prices is mainly due to the recent planned production cuts of varying degrees at some international pulp mills, combined with shipping and logistics issues, the supply side is supported and the strength is strong.
Differentiation occurs
Since the beginning of this year, paper-making enterprises have issued multiple rounds of price increase notices. From the current situation, the prices of some paper types have bottomed out and rebounded. According to the data from Zhongchuang Information, the average price of corrugated paper in July was 2512 yuan/ton, and as of November 24, the average price in November was 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 25.72%.
Niu Weina told reporters that from around July 18, the price of corrugated paper has been rising steadily, but the reasons for the increase at each node are different. "The main reason is still the increase in the price of raw material waste paper, which plays a cost support role in the increase of the price of corrugated paper. At the same time, the current industry peak is also an important support."
The profit pressure of enterprises is also an important reason for the bottoming out and recovery of the corrugated paper price. The above industry insiders told reporters that the price of corrugated paper reached a six-year low at the beginning of July this year, and many paper mills' profits have been close to the breakeven line. The whole market needs a price increase to boost a bit, coupled with the continuous rise in the price of raw materials, waste paper, so there is a large-scale price increase in the industry.
除 corrugated cardboard, whiteboard paper prices have also been continuously rising for several months. Starting from the end of August, whiteboard paper companies began to issue price increase letters, and since then, they have basically been issuing them once a month, and now it has been four consecutive months. From the national market average price, according to the data of Zhongchuang Information, on November 21st, the market price of whiteboard paper was 4214 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.48% compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 7.23% compared to the annual low point in mid to late August 3930 yuan/ton.
ZhuoChuang Information's paper culture analyst Kong Xiangfen told reporters that according to the price of imported raw material pulp, the gross profit margin of white cardboard paper on November 21st was -5.02%, and the industry as a whole is still in a loss state. For paper mills with their own pulp production lines, the company has a cost advantage, but it is still in a state of barely making a profit. Therefore, the enthusiasm of production enterprises to raise prices is relatively high, which has become the key factor to push the market price up.
The price of double-coated paper has not been able to rise all the way, and is still in the bottom range. As of November 24, according to data from Zhongchuang Information, the monthly average price of 70g wood pulp high white double-coated paper in China is 4731 yuan/ton, and the monthly average price of 70g text white double-coated paper is 4429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% and 0.15% respectively compared to October.
SUN Yue, an analyst at Zhongchuang Information, told reporters that at the end of October, double-sided paper manufacturers had issued a round of price increases, with an increase of 200 yuan per ton, but the actual implementation was around 100 yuan per ton. This round of price increases was also within expectations, and the magnitude of the price increase still needs to be observed.
Long-term bearish
Although the price of corrugated paper has increased for five consecutive months, the future trend still faces some challenges. Niu Weina told reporters that at the end of November and the beginning of December, the overall trend of corrugated paper prices should still maintain the upward trend, and there may be a risk of decline in the middle and late part of December, which needs to pay attention to the demand release situation, because this year's order demand increment is not very ideal, and more is the cost side to support the price increase.
The situation with white cardboard is a bit better. Hong Xiangfen told reporters that as orders start to be released before the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, there is a certain expectation of improvement in market demand overall. Coupled with the continuous increase in prices or the stimulation of downstream restocking progress, there is no obvious pressure on the production and sales of paper mills. Overall, the market trend of white cardboard from late November to December may be mainly upward.
In the long run, white cardboard and double-coated paper are still in a state of over supply. According to data from Zhuochuang Information, 2.4 million tons of new white cardboard production capacity will be added in 2025. In 2025, 1.7 million tons of new production capacity for double-coated paper has been implemented, and the market expects another 1 million tons of new production capacity to be launched in 2026.
Unlike white cardstock and corrugated paper, the demand for double-coated paper is in a state of shrinkage.
Reporters learned that double-coated paper is an ideal raw material for books and textbooks, and it can also be used for magazines, color pages and other printed materials. In addition, double-coated paper can also be used to make envelopes, notebooks, dyed embossing and other stationery products. In recent years, due to the reduction in the birth population, the impact of electronic media, the sluggish printed materials export market and the general performance of social orders, the overall downstream demand for double-coated paper has shown a downward trend.
In response to this situation, the above staff member of Sun Paper told reporters that the company still needs to strengthen its internal capabilities, and will also produce some customized products according to the needs of downstream customers. The staff member admitted that in recent years, the company's production of packaging paper has indeed increased, and the company is also firmly committed to the integrated route of forestry, pulp, and paper.
Sun Yue told reporters that coated paper can be diversified into many other paper types, such as office paper. In addition, many large factories are also seeking transformation, such as customized products or special paper. However, the price of coated paper next year is not optimistic. "Considering that the surplus capacity of coated paper may become more serious in 2026, it is expected that the price center will further decline compared to this year," said Sun.